The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitoring showed that in the first half of this year, the production of live pigs, an important breed in the vegetable basket, was also better than expected.
The 30-ton load of feed is enough to feed 8,000 breeding pigs a day at the farm in Yingshang, Anhui province. As stocks have grown, it used to take only three or four days to get a truckload of pig feed in, but now it takes a truckload every day.
According to the person in charge of this breeding enterprise, the market is better this year, he expanded the scale of breeding, and increased the volume of nearly 300 head of breeding every month. At the current market rate, each pig earns about 2,200 yuan.
Major pig producers in Yingshang now have 61,000 sows, 20,000 more than last year. In order to mobilize the accumulation of farmers, the county has also introduced a series of awards and subsidies policies to relieve farmers of worries.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' monitoring of large-scale pig farms nationwide, 6,177 newly built large-scale pig farms were put into operation in the first half of this year, while 10,788 idle large-scale pig farms were restored last year. In addition, the stock of pigs and breeding sows increased for 5 months in a row in 4,000 small bulk farmers' designated monitoring villages.
Expert: Pig price lead period high possibility is unlikely
Since the start of the main flood season, the southern region has experienced five rounds of heavy rainfall, some major pig production areas have suffered floods, coupled with the national pig prices are still rising, raising concerns about whether pork prices will continue to rise.
In recent days, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guizhou provinces have been hit by heavy rainfall and flood disasters, and these regions accounted for about 39 percent of the country's total pig output in 2019. Therefore, some people believe that this is the main factor affecting the rise of pig prices.
Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences' Institute of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine in Beijing, said that heavy rainfall in southern China will only affect pig prices in the short term, and the tight supply of pigs is the main reason for the current price rise.
"This round of pig price increase is driven by northern producing areas, and since July, it has been supplemented by southern selling areas, with pig prices in Guangdong and Fujian exceeding 40 yuan per kilogram." Zhu Zengyong said. It is reported that the price of pork in the national market fell from 59.64 yuan per kg in the third week of February to 45.98 yuan per kg in the fourth week of May after 14 consecutive drops, with a cumulative decline of 23%. Since then, the price of pork in the national market has risen for seven consecutive weeks, reaching 54.54 yuan per kilogram in the third week of July, with a cumulative increase of 8.56 yuan per kilogram, or 18.6 percent.
Zhu Zengyong said the number of pigs and breeding sows is the most important indicator of commercial pig supply. Since October last year, the national breeding sow stock has rebounded for nine consecutive months. From the production cycle point of view, the supply of pigs will recover after 10 months. Pig stocks and piglet supply for four consecutive months of recovery growth, indicating that pig supply is at least five months, that is, the commercial pig supply will bottom out in July. Especially above the scale of the leading enterprises, the volume of the third quarter will increase significantly. Although the flood disaster in south China will affect the progress of pig production recovery in some areas, it has little impact on the overall production capacity recovery trend.
In the third quarter of this year, commercial pig supply will recover growth, but the tight situation is still higher than the same period last year. Heavy rainfall in southern China exacerbated the tight supply situation, which may affect the prevention and control effect of African swine fever. On the latter trend, Zhu Zengyong said that pork consumption in the second half of the year is generally 2 million tons higher than the first half of the year, and consumption demand in the third quarter is expected to maintain 80 to 90 percent of the level of the same period last year. Under the premise that the epidemic of African swine fever is under effective control, it is expected that the price of live pigs and pork will have some room to rise before the National Day, and the price of pigs in some regions may rise rapidly in stages.
"In the short term, pig price increases will come down. At present, the pig price has reached the psychological price of the end of breeding, and the quantity of pig production in the northern producing areas has increased, which alleviates the purchasing demand of slaughtering enterprises to a certain extent. At the same time, with the south local rainfall relief, pigs will usher in concentrated out of the pen, local pig prices may have a correction. In the medium term, pig prices still have some room to rise before the National Day, some areas and periods may see a large rise, but it is unlikely to exceed the previous high." Zhu Zengyong said.